The global market slowdown caused by the corona virus hit
the Indian markets on Friday, with benchmark indices suffering their worst single
day decline in 5 years. The Sensex dropped 1448 points or 3.6 percent to end at
38297 the lowest close since October 14, 2019. The Nifty dropped 414 points or
3.6 percent to close at 11219. The rupee value has also fallen by 0.9 percent
at RS 73.17 against the US dollar; this is the lowest drop in seven months. The
sensex ended the week with 7 percent loss its worst since December 2009.
As on Friday 28 February 2020, more than 83000 people have
been affected by the Corona virus in 53 countries. In the past few weeks the
disease has been reported across different countries outside China. The Brent
crude oil fell 12 percent over the week and ended the week at $50.8 per barrel.
The spread of virus has led to closing of schools in Japan, In Iran Friday prayers
were cancelled and Saudi pilgrims were barred from holistic sites. Last time such
was the a virus hit china was in 2003, which was the ‘SARS’ but at that time
china was not as big of an economy as today, it was not embedded in the global
supply chain and the size of the global trade was smaller. According to Shankar
Sharma founder of first global “even if spreads are contained, restoring
normalcy would take months”.
Many brokers have lowered their earnings forecast after the
lower global growth in coming quarters. Morgan Stanley has listed 3 scenarios
that could happen. The brokerage says if the virus could be contained in the
first quarter and if China returns to normal by the end of the month, the
disruptions will be limited. The second scenario is that new cases arise in
other parts of the world; in this case global growth would average 2.4 percent YOY
in first half of 2020, before picking up in third quarter. And if the outbreaks
persist till September it will lead to recession as it will encompass all large
economies.